Thought Pieces

Essays

01

The Reflexivity Problem: When Prediction Markets Become Self-Fulfilling

George Soros called it reflexivity. Prediction markets have turned it into a mechanism. What happens when the act of forecasting changes the thing being forecast?

02

Who Decides What Happened? The Oracle Problem in Prediction Markets

The mechanism designed to settle bets is inadvertently becoming a mechanism for determining consensus reality. It was never built to bear that weight.

03

The Deletion Detector

Why what people remove from the internet is more predictive than what they post. On deletion signals, OSINT, and the informational value of absence.

04

Pseudonymous Authorship in the Age of AI

scm7k is not a mask. scm7k is an Ed25519 key pair. On cryptographic identity, the dissolving boundary between human and machine authorship, and why the reader's problem is the interesting one.